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There are plenty of ways to evaluate a retirement plan. (For instance, here’s a paper from Wade Pfau, Joe Tomlinson, and Steve Vernon discussing 8 different metrics for evaluating retirement spending/portfolio strategies.) By far the most common though is “probability of running out of money.”

But as Dirk Cotton discusses in a recent article, that metric leaves out a ton of useful information. In addition, it’s questionable how accurate such a metric can be, for any strategy that includes stocks.

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This page titled Problematic Probability of Ruin — Oblivious Investor and more fantastic content can be found at this website. It was originally published on 2019-10-04 12:00:15.